Last updated December 09, 2025
| Rank | Team | Wins | Remaining Games | Win % | Win % Rank | Projected Wins (FPI) | Projected Rank (FPI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Creaser | 27 | 12 | 69.2% | 1 | 33.1 | 1 |
| 2 | Matt Hogel | 23 | 12 | 59.0% | 2 | 30.0 | 2 |
| 2 | Andrew Batchelor | 23 | 12 | 59.0% | 2 | 29.1 | 3 |
| 4 | Karl Loiseau | 22 | 12 | 56.4% | 4 | 27.9 | 4 |
| 5 | Matt McEwan | 21 | 12 | 53.8% | 5 | 27.1 | 5 |
| 6 | Mike Thorne | 20 | 12 | 51.3% | 6 | 26.4 | 6 |
| 7 | Dan Ellenberger | 18 | 12 | 46.2% | 7 | 23.3 | 8 |
| 7 | Andrew Moeller | 18 | 12 | 46.2% | 7 | 24.1 | 7 |
| 9 | Luke Phelan | 16 | 12 | 41.0% | 9 | 21.3 | 9 |
| 10 | Nick Boucher | 13 | 12 | 33.3% | 10 | 19.5 | 10 |
| Team | Wins |
Projected Wins |
Next Opponent |
Win Probability in Next Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Creaser | ||||
| New England Patriots | 11 | 13.2 | BUF | 0.45 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8 | 9.4 | SEA | 0.13 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 8 | 10.5 | LV | 0.84 |
| Andrew Batchelor | ||||
| Denver Broncos | 11 | 12.9 | GB | 0.41 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 9 | 11.5 | NYJ | 0.86 |
| Washington Commanders | 3 | 4.7 | NYG | 0.41 |
| Matt Hogel | ||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 9 | 11.6 | TEN | 0.86 |
| Houston Texans | 8 | 10.7 | ARI | 0.81 |
| Miami Dolphins | 6 | 7.7 | PIT | 0.39 |
| Karl Loiseau | ||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 10 | 12.6 | DET | 0.69 |
| Chicago Bears | 9 | 10.9 | CLE | 0.75 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 4.4 | HOU | 0.19 |
| Matt McEwan | ||||
| Seattle Seahawks | 10 | 12.3 | IND | 0.87 |
| Buffalo Bills | 9 | 11.7 | NE | 0.55 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2 | 3.1 | PHI | 0.16 |
| Mike Thorne | ||||
| Green Bay Packers | 9 | 11.4 | DEN | 0.59 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9 | 10.8 | KC | 0.34 |
| New York Giants | 2 | 4.2 | WAS | 0.59 |
| Andrew Moeller | ||||
| Detroit Lions | 8 | 10.3 | LA | 0.31 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 8.1 | MIN | 0.70 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4 | 5.7 | TB | 0.34 |
| Dan Ellenberger | ||||
| Carolina Panthers | 7 | 8.7 | NO | 0.59 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 6 | 8.1 | CIN | 0.59 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 5 | 6.5 | DAL | 0.30 |
| Luke Phelan | ||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 9.0 | MIA | 0.61 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 9.3 | ATL | 0.66 |
| Tennessee Titans | 2 | 3.0 | SF | 0.14 |
| Nick Boucher | ||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6 | 8.9 | LAC | 0.66 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 4 | 6.5 | BAL | 0.41 |
| Cleveland Browns | 3 | 4.1 | CHI | 0.25 |
Leverage measured by:
* Circles to the top right are games between people closest to first
place
* Bigger circles indicate games that are more likely to be closely
contested
| Team | Wins |
Draft Spot |
Expected Wins |
Performance vs. Expectation |
Better Choices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Creaser | |||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 8 | 4 | 10 | -2 | 8 |
| New England Patriots | 11 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Hogel | |||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 9 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 4 |
| Houston Texans | 8 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 4 |
| Miami Dolphins | 6 | 26 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Andrew Batchelor | |||||
| Denver Broncos | 11 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 0 |
| Washington Commanders | 3 | 14 | 8 | -5 | 10 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 9 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Karl Loiseau | |||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 10 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 17 | 7 | -4 | 8 |
| Chicago Bears | 9 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Matt McEwan | |||||
| Buffalo Bills | 9 | 1 | 11 | -2 | 3 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2 | 27 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| Mike Thorne | |||||
| Green Bay Packers | 9 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 4 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 |
| New York Giants | 2 | 28 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| Dan Ellenberger | |||||
| Baltimore Ravens | 6 | 2 | 11 | -5 | 15 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 5 | 16 | 7 | -2 | 7 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7 | 29 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Andrew Moeller | |||||
| Detroit Lions | 8 | 6 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4 | 22 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| Luke Phelan | |||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 10 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 12 | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| Tennessee Titans | 2 | 24 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| Nick Boucher | |||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6 | 3 | 10 | -4 | 16 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 4 | 13 | 8 | -4 | 10 |
| Cleveland Browns | 3 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 0 |